EUR/USD Forecast and News
EUR/USD holds steady above 1.0650, awaits US data and Fed verdict
EUR/USD is trading sideways above 1.0650 amid a softer risk tone and broad US Dollar strength on Wednesday. With European markets closed for Labor Day, the pair awaits the US employment data and the Fed policy announcements for the next directional move.
Latest EUR News
EUR/USD Technical Overview
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart dropped below 50 and EUR/USD closed the last five 4-hour candles below the 20, 50 and 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMA), reflecting the bearish shift.
On the downside, 1.0650 (static level) aligns as interim support before 1.0600 (static level) and 1.0560 (static level from November). Resistances are located at 1.0700 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement, 100-period SMA, 50-period SMA), 1.0750 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) and 1.0765 (200-period SMA).
Fundamental Overview
EUR/USD came under heavy bearish pressure in the American session on Tuesday and closed the day sharply lower. The pair stays in a consolidation phase below 1.0700 early Wednesday as markets gear up for key data releases from the US and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy decisions.
The US Dollar (USD) started to gather strength on Tuesday after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Employment Cost Index rose 1.2% in the first quarter, above the market expectation and the previous quarter's reading of 1% and 0.9%, respectively. Additionally, the currency benefited from the selloff in major US equity indexes.
The US economic docket will feature ADP Employment Change data for April. Markets forecast an increase of 175,000 in private sector payrolls following the 184,000 increase recorded in March. The market reaction to the ADP employment data is likely to be straightforward, with an upbeat print helping the USD edge higher, and short-lived.
Later in the session, the ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to edge lower to 50 in April from 50.3. The preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for April declined to 49.9 and caused the USD to weaken against its rivals. In case the ISM Manufacturing PMI comes in below analysts' estimate, the USD could have a hard time outperforming its rivals.
Most importantly, the Fed will announce policy decisions and Chairman Jerome Powell will speak on the policy outlook at a press conference. The Fed is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.5% range. According to Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos, the Fed will emphasize that they are prepared to hold rates steady for longer than previously anticipated, due to strong inflation readings in the first quarter of the year.
Investors will also pay close attention to possible changes to the quantitative tightening (QT) strategy. The Fed is expected to announce that they will slow the pace of QT. In case the Fed postpones this decision, citing inflation concerns, the initial reaction could provide an additional boost to the USD.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly EUR/USD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Euro-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
EUR/USD: Federal Reserve and Nonfarm Payrolls spell action next week Premium
The EUR/USD pair temporarily reconquered the 1.0700 threshold this week, settling at around that round level. The US Dollar lost its appeal following discouraging US macroeconomic data indicating tepid growth and persistent inflationary pressures.
EUR/USD Big Picture
EUR/USD Bullish Themes
EUR/USD Bearish Themes
Latest EUR Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD holds steady above 1.0650, awaits US data and Fed verdict
EUR/USD is trading sideways above 1.0650 amid a softer risk tone and broad US Dollar strength on Wednesday. With European markets closed for Labor Day, the pair awaits the US employment data and the Fed policy announcements for the next directional move.
GBP/USD flatlines below 1.2500 ahead of US data, Fed
GBP/USD is off the lows but stays flatlined below 1.2500 early Wednesday. The US Dollar strength caps the pair's upside amid a cautious mood ahead of the top-tier US employment data and the all-important Fed policy announcements.
Japanese Yen struggles to gain momentum, eyes on Fed decision
The Japanese Yen continues to be undermined by the divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectations. Bets that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer, lift the USD, and lend support to USD/JPY. The risk-off impulse underpins the safe-haven JPY and caps gains ahead of the FOMC decision.
Gold price remains on tenterhooks with eyes on Fed policy decision
Gold price hovers below $2,300 as uncertainty ahead of the Fed’s policy announcements improves the appeal of the US Dollar and bond yields. The Fed is expected to support keeping interest rates at their current levels for a longer period.
WTI remains under selling pressure below $81.00 amid unexpected oil stockpile build
Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $80.80 on Wednesday. The black gold edges lower on rising crude inventories in the United States and easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
EUR/USD Yearly forecast
How could EUR/USD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2024 EUR/USD forecast!
EUR/USD FORECAST 2024
In the EURUSD 2024 Forecast, our analyst, Valeria Bednarik, anticipates gains for the next couple of months. The Eurozone economy would need to show steady signs of recovery to prevent EUR/USD from collapsing below 1.0390 in the year's second half. Read more details about the forecast.
The pair traded as low as 1.0447 and as high as 1.1275 throughout 2023, with currencies moving on sentiment.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2024 FOR EUR/USD
There is a note of color that would stand out in the upcoming months: the US 2024 presidential election that will take place on November 5. The contest nomination will start as soon as January and run until June. The pinch of drama comes from Donald Trump’s desire to represent Republicans once again. A potential second government of Donald Trump could mean higher inflationary pressures as Trump could reintroduce tariffs on imports and push against the agreements between China and the Biden administration.
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The Euro US Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone and maintain price stability, so that the euro’s purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. The ECB aims to ensure that the year-on-year increase in consumer prices is less than, but close to 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is one of controlling the money supply. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde is the President of this organism.
ECB Official Website, on Twitter and YouTube
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
On the other
FED Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
Christine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense and became President of the European Central Bank in November 1st 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007–2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005–2007).
Lagarde on ECB'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
Normally, it is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online. If there is important U.S. data we can expect quiet markets just ahead of the number. U.S. economic news have the ability to either reinforce an existing trend or reverse it depending on by how much it missed or beat expectations with the EUR/USD news. By 5:00 GMT liquidity leaves the market once again as European traders close out positions and head home.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', reffering to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.
The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a widely observed and traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. After the result of the Brexit referendum, where the majority of the British voted to abandon the European Union, GBP/USD has been suffering some turbulence in the Forex market as a consequence of the associated risks of leaving the single market.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', the most important pairs in the world. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate, normally used in carry trades, that's why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.
Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when reffered to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is dued to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.